When I first started posting in Nov ‘18- I was mostly focused on DUCs and rig count. And then, one day, frustrated with feeling like I was the only one seeing that production growth was making it uneconomic to actually be a producer, I wrote a post that started “Dear Operators (yes- I named them), Please shut down your rigs...Love and hugs, David”. A colleague reached out to a partner of mine and said “Tell Ramsden-Wood to zip it. No one is listening to his...

In 1956, King Hubbert predicted peak oil production in the US. Through technology and trajectory, the “shale revolution” reversed declines in 2008 and production began to grow. In 2014 as oil was crashing and companies scrambled to drop rigs, I incorrectly predicted US production would never exceed June 2015 volumes of 9.6 mmbo/d. Why? The Bakken and EF were being drilled too tightly; parts of the plays only worked at $90/bbl and at $50, they would cease and that would be that. I was wrong....

Please stop tweeting (I have other things to write about) But- I noticed your plan to forgive student debt. Can you also forgive the money I spent buying energy stocks that are down 50% since April? Sure. I made a bad decision and didn’t look at the EV (like taking a political science degree for $70,000/year and expecting to pay off the loan working at Whole Foods). But I’ve learned my lesson. Can you forgive me? Or- can we realize that a college degree...

Today was the day I was going to provide the data to support why August 2019 was the month that the US hit peak oil production. And then I saw your tweet. I have 1300 characters to your 280 but energy policy can’t be debated like this. I love this planet. I love my kids and their future. I want to die in my bed with birds singing, clear skies and having paid my IRS bill every year to meet the ever changing tax...

It’s been a week since I concluded the series titled “Peak Oil in the US” and the most common feedback I get is “I want you to be right, but I can’t believe it.” Today, we revisit the subject. My new friend Michael Kelly, CFA with Seaport has been one of the few analysts actually writing with data not opinion: 1st with his ADAM lunch presentation comparing ’19 to ‘15 with a moving rendition of “What Investors Want” starring Mr Skilling...

Dear Mr ‘hot’ take, You are kind of a d*ck. What’s the deal? Discipline callouts, arm chair quarterbacking and not calling your mother as often as you should?! Seriously. Here’s a #hotquestionoftheweek- how can you be as open minded as you claim when you can't possibly listen to anyone with that megaphone of a mouth? The alien in your profile pic is pretty funny. But what’s really funny is pretending to be some outsider and bash the C-suite when...

Dear C-Suite Well, here we are. In the last 2 weeks, I have laid some pretty good beatings on your people- and the least surprising part is that nothing I said was a surprise to anyone. It’s almost as though they are talking and you aren’t listening. You say “people are our most important asset” but think “unless they tell me something I don’t want to hear”. Maybe it’s middle MGMT that is filtering the message but you’ve got to realize that it isn’t...

Dear Geoscience Community, I feel awkward. I don’t know how to say this. We’ve been together a long time but we’ve also grown so much. That’s why it hurts me when I say: It’s not me, it’s you... I’m sorry. Such a shock, right? How can I not think exploration is fun? Prospecting. Finding new plays. Doing science! Getting core!! Licking rocks!!! Our industry NEEDS this. Unless you are offshore or international or have a lot of personal money to drill your own prospects,...

Last week, BP announced it was selling it’s Alaska position to Hilcorp and in some corners, it was being hailed as “the death of shale.” It is not. I don’t profess to be an expert in Alaskan oil development (after all, I’m not 65) but I do know: 1) it’s a big company game 2) Production has been in decline since 1987 3) It doesn’t move the needle for BP. BP found a buyer that allows them to redeploy capital where it really matters- their...

Dear Research Analysts, You and I need to make a deal. I’m going to tell you some wonderful news later this week- and you are going to hold accountable companies that haven’t learned anything the last few years. Deal? Wait! I’m not done with you yet. I understand the complex revenue model you have- you get paid to cover the companies and if you aren’t nice- they don’t let you on their conference calls and then “that” department on the other side of the...