A year ago, when I found a nice little spot on my river to take a break, the world looked a lot different than it does today.  If I'm honest (and I feel that's where we are in our relationship), each October going back to 2011 has been one where I would make predictions for the coming year and by April, everything had gone to absolute sh*t.  I only recognize this in hindsight. But last summer, I was on a...

I like spreadsheets, I'm not going to lie. Maybe that makes me a little weird or uncool and sure, it's true that I wrote a macro in Excel to ask a fellow engineer on a date in University but I like to think that just says I have skilz. (she said no). However, we can all agree that the best decisions are made in Excel and so it remains my go to and tool for the post...

In the final segment of the series- allow me to present the ‘piece de resistance’. Before continuing- you may wish to review the “Dear Reservoir Engineers” beating to remind yourself that when wells are drilled too closely, they steal reserves from each other. I get it- parent-child; parent-cousin- that’s a lot of family dynamics but stay with me. ‘Stealing’ happens in two ways: lower b factors than the parent well and a higher terminal decline rate. So what?! Let’s do an exercise: Step 1....

I bet you’ve been just itching to see this post! EIA inventory data?! Be still my beating heart! Mr. Hot take, you are too much! Arcane. Yes. But like the DUCs, telling. Yesterday, we saw another 6.9 mmbo crude oil draw which surprised analysts. But it shouldn’t. Since June 7, the US has dropped oil inventory by almost 900 mbo/d. Per day! Seasonality be damned - 65 mmbo draw in 3 months is a lot. The last time we were at this absolute inventory level...

To read any investor presentation (that reminds me, I need a “Dear IR” beating)- you would think every Q is better than the last and any mistake is a non recurring charge (like high H2S charges being “non recurring”- that is true- you do only process that mcf once). But things don’t get better forever. The rock is the rock and eventually, you reach the limit of technology. I know- a lot of you just yelled at me: things about human ingenuity; you can’t predict...

When I first started posting in Nov ‘18- I was mostly focused on DUCs and rig count. And then, one day, frustrated with feeling like I was the only one seeing that production growth was making it uneconomic to actually be a producer, I wrote a post that started “Dear Operators (yes- I named them), Please shut down your rigs...Love and hugs, David”. A colleague reached out to a partner of mine and said “Tell Ramsden-Wood to zip it. No one is listening to his...

In 1956, King Hubbert predicted peak oil production in the US. Through technology and trajectory, the “shale revolution” reversed declines in 2008 and production began to grow. In 2014 as oil was crashing and companies scrambled to drop rigs, I incorrectly predicted US production would never exceed June 2015 volumes of 9.6 mmbo/d. Why? The Bakken and EF were being drilled too tightly; parts of the plays only worked at $90/bbl and at $50, they would cease and that would be that. I was wrong....

Please stop tweeting (I have other things to write about) But- I noticed your plan to forgive student debt. Can you also forgive the money I spent buying energy stocks that are down 50% since April? Sure. I made a bad decision and didn’t look at the EV (like taking a political science degree for $70,000/year and expecting to pay off the loan working at Whole Foods). But I’ve learned my lesson. Can you forgive me? Or- can we realize that a college degree...

Today was the day I was going to provide the data to support why August 2019 was the month that the US hit peak oil production. And then I saw your tweet. I have 1300 characters to your 280 but energy policy can’t be debated like this. I love this planet. I love my kids and their future. I want to die in my bed with birds singing, clear skies and having paid my IRS bill every year to meet the ever changing tax...

It’s been a week since I concluded the series titled “Peak Oil in the US” and the most common feedback I get is “I want you to be right, but I can’t believe it.” Today, we revisit the subject. My new friend Michael Kelly, CFA with Seaport has been one of the few analysts actually writing with data not opinion: 1st with his ADAM lunch presentation comparing ’19 to ‘15 with a moving rendition of “What Investors Want” starring Mr Skilling...