It’s been a week since I concluded the series titled “Peak Oil in the US” and the most common feedback I get is “I want you to be right, but I can’t believe it.” Today, we revisit the subject.

My new friend Michael Kelly, CFA with Seaport has been one of the few analysts actually writing with data not opinion: 1st with his ADAM lunch presentation comparing ’19 to ‘15 with a moving rendition of “What Investors Want” starring Mr Skilling (Parody) and yours truly as voices of reason; and 2nd- with a productivity study addressing a subset of my analysis last week WITH DATA. So, I commend Michael.

Here are my counter points.

1. Can we agree that high IP’s have not led to higher EURs? Instead, they are touted as drivers of ROR.

2. If we agree, can we then agree that therefore declines MUST be steeper to meet the same EUR?

3. Oil production growth resumed in ‘16 and each year we have completed MORE wells than the previous year.

4. That from Dec ‘18- Jun ‘19 the data shows production has not grown, despite averaging 19% more completions than Jan-July ‘18.

5. Cos are ramping down their activity in Q4, as evidenced by the intersection of highway 18 and 128 in Jal, NM.

If you accept all this as true- how can production still grow?

It can’t.