When I first started posting in Nov ‘18- I was mostly focused on DUCs and rig count. And then, one day, frustrated with feeling like I was the only one seeing that production growth was making it uneconomic to actually be a producer, I wrote a post that started “Dear Operators (yes- I named them), Please shut down your rigs…Love and hugs, David”.

A colleague reached out to a partner of mine and said “Tell Ramsden-Wood to zip it. No one is listening to his ‘hot take of the day’.” Naturally, the next day I added a #, targeted bankers and vowed to post everyday thereafter (so he’s to blame for this).

DUC data is a good starting point for the discussion. There are arguments about the methodology and exact #- but as the data is consistent- there is something to be gleaned. Let’s zoom in on the DJ, Anadarko, Permian, Bakken and EF.

In all but the Permian, we are completing more wells than we are drilling. MORE IMPORTANTLY- we are completing wells at the highest rate since ‘14. MOST IMPORTANTLY- LL are increasing YOY so 1 completion today is worth 1.1-1.2 completions in ‘18.

So. Given that- why has production barely grown since Dec ‘18? Tune in tomorrow for part 2: productivity enhancements (spoiler alert: have stopped)