It's time for the last Technical Tuesday of the year, and where else to finish but the same spot we started: looking at DUCs in the key oil basins (drawing from ShaleProfile Analytics and EIA data). First, let's start with the definition of a DUC. It is drilled, uncompleted well. Lots of people question the EIA data but don't provide a better number. Importantly- it's a consistent methodology and that tabulates 3 things: 1) # wells were drilled in a basin 2) # wells completed 3)...

2019 is behind us and, as of tomorrow, sober January begins for yours truly. It’s a great way to shake off the cobwebs and get back to health (Losing Weight: eat less, exercise more).   As we welcome 2020, a couple of enhancements to the hottake I’m excited about. I’m recording the first podcast this week which will do a deeper dive into the key issues driving my 2020 expectations. The website now has an email distribution you can sign up for so that the daily post can...

With only 2 days left in 2019 (and the last merger Monday of the year), it’s worth looking back on the year that was, starting with a post from February live from the Four Seasons bar at NAPE where all the action happens. “The model will shift to drill your returns.” Absolutely. All the rock in the U.S. worth owning is now owned and all there is left to do is turn it to cashflow. The lack of cash acquisitions...

If you don’t follow Prof Galloway, you should.  I was first introduced when someone sent me his post on WeWork.  Instead of being limited to 1300 characters, he had a time (that blog is here). He’s tech, witty, and very good. However, I have to call negative attention to a tweet he sent yday identifying a study that said in 2018 “billionaires paid a lower tax rate than the working class.”  Ok. We are about to have some fun with math. 1. The economists use the...

In our system of commerce-capitalism-the purpose of a company is to maximize profits to the owners (the shareholders) and broadly speaking, the purpose of investors (those who manage big pools of money) is to ensure capital allocation is done properly. Companies doing well get more capital and those that aren’t...don’t. Government revenues are generated from a cut of the profits to pay for infrastructure (how large this should be depends on your political persuasion) and employees are the cogs that make it all possible. This overly simplistic view...

Have we gone too far? These days it feels like we have moved into a state of: if you are offended, you are right. No discussion, no jury, just rally behind the offendee. God forbid that someone should be offended.  But what... what if they are wrong? Here’s the reality.  Some people aren’t that smart, even though they think they are.  Some people are bad at their job, even when they tell you how good they are at it. And sometimes, they really are assholes, even...

There are a lot of good lessons to learn from the George C. Scott version of ‘A Christmas Carol’, not the least of which is: a life spent accumulating wealth without leaving the world a better place ends up with 3 spirits creeping you out on Christmas Eve.  Here’s what they would have said this year. Christmas past: oil and gas has been a cyclical industry, on the verge of death many times but always coming back on the back of technology...

Peter Lynch was quoted in a Barron’s article over the weekend that talked about the legacy of his investments and track record; the book that made Warren Buffet call him to ask to borrow a quote and, in the last paragraph of the story he said “oh yeah, and oil and OFS and NG stocks might triple.” Ok, Peter. You had me all the way to the last paragraph and to me, this is the greatest gap and opportunity in our industry today (at least from...

Christmas week has arrived and after the carnage that we saw in December of 2018, this month has been quite a comparative treat. Deals closing (CPE-CRZO); being announced (WPX-Felix, APA-TOT) and oil starts with a “6”. It’s only been tough one for the natural gas bulls - but you’ve had a long time to get used to the beatings. In honor of Christmas and running through the rest of 2019, you are going to have a chance to win one...

Apache. One of the most loved companies to hate on over the Alpine High (but that’s not the point of today’s post - I will leave that speculation to the Twitter’s EFT... for now). With many companies shut down until January for the holidays, imagine my surprise when late Sunday, Apache announced a 50/50 JV with Total to develop their 1.4mm acres in Suriname. What a sneaky and wonderful Xmas week press release!  And for now, they shall have their revenge on the shorts. Perhaps...