The incredible rally in 2021 continues. Jim Cramer said this morning: “The market has not priced it in. Not at all... I think that the animal spirits of people will override even what we see in the stock market.” Wayfair stock is up almost 40% in 8 days. The Russell index of small caps is up 10% during that same time. Tesla is recalling 160,000 cars, 10% of the total cars they have ever produced and their stock is UP...

The topic of share buybacks dominated the news in 2019. In that year, S&P500 companies bought $480 billion of stock, and led to strong stock demand, masking some of the cracks in the underlying economy as we headed for 2020. COVID came and... well, to be frank, fundamentals flew out the window, as did cash flow, debt covenants, and pretty much everything else and we stopped thinking about financial health. Your financial advisor would tell you: “don’t worry! The stock...

2020 has been surprising, to say the least.  From the wild fires in Australia to a contested election in the United States, we've seen a little bit of everything.  Who knew that investors could even rotate out of growth tech into value, as we saw in a huge way on Monday, with the super majors up 15%?!  As someone who was, and is, short the sector, days like Monday undo a huge amount of gains from an investment thesis...

In the category of things no one wants to talk about... taxes are right up there.  But, make no mistake, taxes are going much higher because of all the fiscal stimulus that has been and continues to be pumped into the economy.  Credit cards are fun, until you get the bill and if you want to know what debt does, ask any oil and gas company how their "supercharged balance sheet" is doing through the downturn.  Here are a...

Optimism is important. It’s a trait that I have long been short on but actively work to develop almost every day. Maybe today I will lose the taste for cookies which will help me lose weight. Maybe today Hugo the dog will decide he doesn’t want to attack me. Maybe today, after doubling the first hole, I am optimistic I will get 2 eagles and a hole in 1 to be able to get back on track. Not surprisingly,...

Here is the breakdown of jobs added in August. Quick question, sir. If you don’t mind my asking, but what product is the government creating? Also, with falling tax revenue and maybe I’m missing something... shouldn’t it be shrinking? Asking for a friend. #hottakeoftheday

The long awaited Executive Orders on coronavirus stimulus came yesterday and all I can do is sit on the porch, drink coffee and scratch my head asking “how did we get here?” We go out to restaurants a lot. My assessment: they aren’t full because many people have changed their habits, not because of capacity restrictions. Why are we prolonging the inevitable? Many hospitality jobs are permanently lost. Why are we pretending? I have heard from pharmaceutical salespeople who say they...

Not that logic has anything to do with it but here’s a thought: instead of putting a moratorium on evictions (which we all know is simply delaying the inevitable) why doesn’t the US simply purchase the debt owned (in the form of overdue rent) at a 0% interest rate for 3 years. The US Fed is just printing money anyway, and in this particular case it solves a whole bunch of problems in one simple action. The benefits: the landlord...

“This is the first time in my life, my business is failing and I can’t even work harder to fix it. There is a chance I lose everything.”- a close friend and multiple restaurant owner. “Every day I’m losing money and my employees are asking why they aren’t getting bonuses. Businesses don’t work at 60%.” -a small business owner who will be closing one of their locations forever next week. “People with means are going to pull their kids from school,...

What if I told you a family (a mother and three children) went down to Pepsi center to get the coronavirus test, checked in but 3 hours later still didn’t have the test and said “F this, curiosity is neat but this is super dumb” and left without taking the test? Amazingly, the entire family got the lab results: positive for the coronavirus... yes, it was pointed out they never actually took the test. What if I told you that...