Optimism is important. It’s a trait that I have long been short on but actively work to develop almost every day. Maybe today I will lose the taste for cookies which will help me lose weight. Maybe today Hugo the dog will decide he doesn’t want to attack me. Maybe today, after doubling the first hole, I am optimistic I will get 2 eagles and a hole in 1 to be able to get back on track. Not surprisingly,...

Volatility remains "a thing". First in oil, over the span of 10 trading days, oil moved from $43/bbl, to $36 and now back to $41. Easy to plan 2021, right? Not to be outdone, Natural Gas went from uber bullish (the sentiment, not the car company) at $2.60/mcf to $2.00/mcf over the course of 15 trading days. What to make of it? The read-through to supply and demand is partial and while not complete, sentiment is much easier to track. Watch...

The oil price today makes me laugh. Seriously. The EIA report showed that imports were down 416,000 bbls/d over the last 7 days. 7 x 416 = 2.9 mmbo/d less week over week. Inventories decreased by 4.4 mmbbl. So 1.5 mmbbl were drawn from inventory but overall product increased by 4.3 mmbbl when you look at distillate, gasoline and propane/polypropylene. Refineries are running at 76% or capacity. There is 7.7 mmbo/d of surplus capacity from OPEC+. Iran is cheating. Iraq is...

If you have read the #hottakeoftheday or listened to the #htotdpodcast for the last 6 months, you knew a lot of the factors that were causing cracks in the oil market (and supported the natural gas market). Oil inventories are very high around the world. 65% of oil is consumed in transportation. If work from home is a thing... how could demand come back? OPEC has 7 mmbo/d spare capacity, and no where to send it plus a lot of incentives to let...