There are two types of climate-change-ologists who get into discussions about electricity: those that recognize that economics, jobs, taxes, subsidies and re-elect-ability all play a factor in decision making and look for incremental solutions to problems; and those who believe that mankind has gone too far and needs to rejoin our original state with nature, forgetting that the changes in our life span and quality of life are directly related to our access to energy (also known as de-growthers)....

Heading into Thanksgiving, it’s a great week to reflect on the state of industry as we approach what is expected to be a non event: the OPEC meeting December 5th. Prognosticators are looking towards the compliance level to the cuts rather than the absolute level themselves but one thing is for sure: no one can agree on what demand or supply looks like next year. Let’s have a look, starting with demand. The world uses approximately 100...

Let’s talk about DUCs: the slack in the system that hides some of the rig count drop. Did you know that in 2019 we are completing wells at a pace that is 11% faster than 2018 in spite of a 26% rig drop. And did you know that finally- industry is completing more wells than its drilling in every play! Add to that, Halliburton said they did 20% less stages in Q3 than Q2. What are we...

The series over the last week was a great set up for Q3 earnings, and man am I excited.  So let’s get the last of the optimism out of the way. (Because I’m gonna roll up the sleeves and get dirty next week...) I believe with 100% confidence that the world will continue to need energy, from all sources and in particular, oil and gas. I believe that prices- the lifeline and anchor to the industry- will have to match the price of the marginal local bbl and...

There was a piece in a Vanity Fair article on Theranos that boiled down the Silicon Valley business plan perfectly. I’ve pasted it in the comments section.  But suffice to say - the punch to the face that was the WeWork IPO (down 80% valuation when bankers have to buy it?!) coupled with the trade war and fears of recession and investors are taking a pause and evaluating the companies they own... does this business plan make sense?  And, most importantly, even though it’s a great business,...

I don’t know if you’ve landed at DIA recently, but when you do and just want to get where you are going, an Uber can take upwards of 20 minutes just to arrive.  So last night, after a long travel day- I went to the cab line to expedite the process. 45 minutes later my usual $41 Uber was replaced with a $77 cab.  Not surprisingly, like most things, the event reminded me of oil and gas.   Hope and dreams and growth are great but...

Over the weekend, I re-read ‘Boomerang’. In it, Lewis investigates how the financial crisis hit Greece, Iceland and Ireland, among others. The chapter on Ireland was relevant to O&G in particular. A random academic noted bizarre investment behavior and wrote a paper that anticipated the crisis. Instead of listening, everyone went on TV and to the papers to scream at him and tell the world he was an idiot. And then a year later, you know what, he was right. Don’t you hate that? My new...

I’ve been reading more Canadian news of late as our neighbours to the North gear up for a national election that pits economic potential against climate change and subsidies. Needless to say- the latter is likely to win on Monday but that’s not the point of this post (Sadly ‘right’ is less important than ‘electable’) BC is a beautiful province and the California of Canada. That gov’t has been very active in stopping Alberta from building a pipeline across BC and thus preventing it from exporting otherwise...

I like words. It’s why I'm not on Twitter. 280 characters is barely an intro. If you disagree- DM me. So- in Part 4 (the conclusion)- I’m excited that I need only one word to summarize my optimism for the future of O&G: Activism. #hottakeoftheday (280)

On Wednesday, the Fed released it’s energy survey for Q3. Not surprisingly, it posted the worst readings since ‘16.  In today’s post- we face facts. Q4 will be far worse than Q3. I’ll say it again for effect: FAR WORSE. At least 100 frac crews have idled since the spring; HZ rigs are down 180 and are almost at my 700 target; companies HAVE to hit or beat their ‘19 capital so will slow further and there is no new capital coming into the industry for...