A year ago, when I found a nice little spot on my river to take a break, the world looked a lot different than it does today.  If I'm honest (and I feel that's where we are in our relationship), each October going back to 2011 has been one where I would make predictions for the coming year and by April, everything had gone to absolute sh*t.  I only recognize this in hindsight. But last summer, I was on a...

The sweepstakes continue as we eagerly await the next marriage proposal. Oil is $42, gas is stubbornly not moving, and companies are running out of runway. Witness SM’s stock performance today after announcing their Q2 update. “Cost control” means crushing service companies and laying off staff. “Change in working capital” means a reduction in accruals due to dramatically lower spending, expanding the time to pay payables and receiving all the receivables. But when you don’t do things, your production declines,...

n the #mergecdevmerge sweepstakes, after bondholders in CDEV didn’t love the proposed debt conversion and how the benefits accrued to Riverstone, already the largest owner in the equity, Riverstone increased their equity ownership in the company. With 0 rigs and 0 frac fleets running, CDEV is the perfect example of a ZombieCo. The question will be- who’s equity do they take in the merger OR does Riverstone take them private to provide optionality and control? Not investment advice, just asking...

You know life is starting to get back to normal when I start a post with "Dear CDEV" .  Remember those days?  Free to go to restaurants.  Not look awkwardly at the person across from you wondering if you should touch elbows, foot bump or air high five.  Pick on management teams and not feel like you were stealing candy from an infant?  I do.  I miss those days.  But which each passing hour, I feel like we are...

When we left our hero on Tuesday, I made the case that EOG's best strategy was to hoard cash and do nothing because as I saw it, none of their peer companies made attractive acquisition candidates FOR EOG. Today, we revisit that with the help of the RBCRichardsonBarr website of power. Large caps over $2 billion Premise 1. If EOG is going to do a transaction, it needs to be meaningful (So not a small cap, though I know...

RE: What your BD team should be working on. Like the old joke about lawyers and the ocean, Monday’s press release presented a good start. First, congratulations to Mr. Papa who had a long and distinguished career and I applaud him for his decision to spend more time with his family. After 52 years, he deserves it. To the analysts that said “the stock might under perform in the wake of his retirement"… you have seen the stock chart,...

It's Technical Tuesday and you had to know it was coming. In the past 8 weeks, I have taken a lot of beatings on your behalf on Twitter for my equity ownership in you because, rightly or wrongly, I made you the poster child for my SMOG investment thesis. It is also relevant to this discussion that I own more shares personally than any of your non executive directors, so you know I care. Like really,...

Dear Callon, Please, don't stop reading. I know our relationship didn't get off on the right foot and even though it's entirely your fault, I'm going to do the right thing and take the blame, because that's what you do when you are trying to make amends. Also, congratulations on your purchase of Carrizo, I didn't think you would get that done. I stand corrected. I do this thing called "Technical Tuesday" and... You know what, it doesn't matter...

Following the Parsley/Jagged discussion on Technical Tuesday, it's time for a very special Technical Thursday to talk about the other marriage that closed this week- PDC and SRC. Have I mentioned I love mergers? (PS, so does EVERY ENERGY INVESTOR!!) Let's start with some disclosures. I own PDC shares. I don't give investment advice and I think by now everyone is aware that I write what I think. So today, I will openly pontificate on the PDC/SRC...

We hosted a forum for 30 really smart, optimistic and fun technical experts yesterday and I opened the session by being down right gloomy. Have you ever given a speech where you finished and said “man- that’s not what I wanted?” Well. That was me yesterday. What I came to realize after getting over the regret was a) the people in that room were very smart and b) without a true paradigm shift, the risk of change can feel high. But we are there and we...