Yesterday marked one year since the passing of my father in law. For someone who has spent a year cultivating a brand (even if quite accidentally) of someone who is cynical, direct and impersonal, it could be a risk going with a full weekend of personal lest anyone get the wrong idea. But it’s Thanksgiving- and we are going to get heavy into data this week- so why not go all in? We’ve all had important people pass...

On the topic of my children (as I take Thanksgiving away from energy posts), my youngest plays AAA hockey which, like all competitive sports, is time consuming, money draining and at times, heartbreaking. In the coaches eyes, he is comfortably the least great D-man and therefore has the best seat in the house for the last 8 minutes or every game. No complaints from me: Sports are a meritocracy judged by the coach and/or results. You can pout or...

The day where family and friends gather and awkward things said at the dinner table are forgiven (fortunately for me). So this year, to help break up any potentially controversial political conversations or arguments over well spacing, here’s a great list of questions a friend of mine came up with for a corporate retreat to get to know your table mates better. 1. What movie do you recommend you Just have to watch? 2. At a yellow light,...

At my oldest son’s school, the students are put into something called an ‘advisory group’. It’s a support and study group with about 15 students in each group. We were talking about their team last night on the way home from Thanksgiving dinner and I asked how they manage the group. He told me that one of the exercises they did early in the year was to come up with a sort of vision statement for...

Let’s talk about orphans, and I don’t mean the ones in Annie. In ‘15, the downturn led to an expansion of the problem of orphan wells. In Canada, there was a case with a company called Redwater, who owned interests in a number of wells that needed to be P&Ad and declared bankruptcy. Through two levels of Appeal to the Supreme Court, It was ruled that plugging the old wells superseded the rights of the creditors. Different country but...

Heading into Thanksgiving, it’s a great week to reflect on the state of industry as we approach what is expected to be a non event: the OPEC meeting December 5th. Prognosticators are looking towards the compliance level to the cuts rather than the absolute level themselves but one thing is for sure: no one can agree on what demand or supply looks like next year. Let’s have a look, starting with demand. The world uses approximately 100...

Being an activist investor is hard. Just ask Carl Icahn who is reportedly seeking to take control of all 10 seats on Oxy’s board because he doesn’t like the direction the company is headed. I have written that I hold Ms.Hollub in high regard because of the steps she took to win a deal that she felt was worth betting the company on. You don’t have to agree with her (as Mr.Icahn doesn’t and put his money where his...

As you can probably tell, I like to write. No doubt there are many better at it than me but I enjoy combining data and analysis with creativity. However, every once in a while, it’s nice to abandon the data and the research and turn totally to the world of fiction. So, since it’s Sunday, I have a challenge for you: I’m going to give you a story title (Terminal) and an object (an IV) and...

Let’s talk about DUCs: the slack in the system that hides some of the rig count drop. Did you know that in 2019 we are completing wells at a pace that is 11% faster than 2018 in spite of a 26% rig drop. And did you know that finally- industry is completing more wells than its drilling in every play! Add to that, Halliburton said they did 20% less stages in Q3 than Q2. What are we...

What did I learn from the graphic yday? 3 things. The growth trajectory of PXD is without comparison; the white space closely correlates with the PXD IR map (which begs the question-are they the only ones with inventory?); and the picture provided me the answer as to why my SMOG analysis on PXD didn't make sense. That's the topic of this post. I know, I know. For 2 days I've said "look at the pictures" but today, we are...