What Comes Next (Part II)

The ingenuity of mankind and the proliferation of our ideas are simply breathtaking but like anything- there are side effects to our innovation. The Manhattan project brought with it the ability to end war and power the world while simultaneously creating the ability to destroy it. Acid rain- the result of the boom in industrial activity was addressed and dramatically reduced with the Clean Air Act of ‘90; the Montreal protocol of ‘87 addressed the use of CFCs in refrigeration when they were found to be depleting...

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What Comes Next (Part 1)

Starting a discussion on the future of energy with WeWork may be unconventional but it’s topical as a stark contrast to our business. If they can ‘Elevate the world’s consciousness’ it’s probably safe for us to say ‘Powering the World’. But even in the age of ESG- we don’t. We are focused on the survival of our business, not fancy slogans. But- it’s hard not to notice a $47b valuation for a company that has never made a profit and would have made it larger than...

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Prices climbing… now what?

Saudi Arabian...what are we calling it...sabotage? Iranian sanctions. Venezuelan supply falling off a cliff. In the good old days, these events would have driven oil up 10% but with tariff concerns, prices remain in the low 60’s. With so much noise in China-US trade, quietly and unnoticed, energy companies are being given a second lease on life (well, some of them). Budgets were set at $50 oil and activity was front end loaded. Excess cash is being used for stock buybacks and debt management and...

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NAPE Summary, revisited

From my NAPE summary note, a common question arose: “I know the asset market is dead.... but why?” Here’s my take: 1. Asset acquisitions are about high grading one’s portfolio. To do that, the key requirement is access to capital. Pubco’s with “tier 2/3” assets can’t raise capital. Period. Pubco’s with Tier 1 assets have decades in front of them and don’t need more inventory. Ergo, unless they can use equity, deals aren’t getting done. 2. Private equity is the ONLY group WITH capital BUT they...

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NAPE Summary 2019

I leave NAPE with pains in my liver but a bounce in my step - which for a near perma-bear is a dramatic shift! What were my take-always? 1) Water is the new oil. It is, perhaps, the last frontier of “lease and flip” and is mirroring the trajectory of the horizontal resource play boom. 2) There are a lot of midstream dollars looking for a place to happen and it feels like we are going to be over built in the near term. 3)...

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