Having never published a book prior to Friday, I was more focused on the major points: front page, content, dedication, author’s note and what it would feel like to share all my flaws with the world. What I didn’t think enough about was how to categorize the book. So you will believe me when I say that I’m not totally clear what I was thinking when I answered the question: “What category is this book?” with the phrases: “Business,...

That was the day that ended the world as I knew it: All the things I had wanted, and thought I could achieve, ended in boxes that contained the remnants of my career. That was also the day I started writing the book: “What the F@&K is Wrong with Everybody Else?-What They Didn’t Teach You in Business School” (shortly after reintroducing myself to my children, discovering I was 10 days away from a separation and explaining why Daddy didn’t have income or health...

Somebody pinch me, and not just because I’m long SMOG names! When I open the RBCRB page, I see green! Every day! Sentiment almost feels... good and oil is very close to my YE $63/bbl target (Shadow Creek, here I come!) But...why?  Oil inventories are high, refinery runs are low, and the world seems awash in oil.  What’s going on? I think the thesis from August remains in tact. 1. OPEC+ is defending price above $60. SA needs it for social programs and the IPO didn’t hurt (a...

Today’s post has been a long time coming. It’s time to debunk the long held myth that IPs matter to economics. First. Let’s get out of the way “it’s because of oil backwardization”. I agree. Price matters THE most in our business. But when oil is $52 and the forward strip was $55, you know we aren’t choking wells. So, let’s assume that as in practice, decisions are made in a flat price deck world. Now let’s talk ROR. That # is the...

We live in the age of data democratization and the implications are hard to understate. I'm typing on a phone that has 100,000x more processing power than the guidance computer that landed us on the moon. I found that stat in 2 minutes. When I went to school, I would have had to go to the library, find books and it may have taken me a week. When data is in the hands of the common man, nothing is...

When I think of energy, I think of all the sources and uses. It’s like a living cash flow statement for the world. Which makes sense since 10% of global GDP is spent on energy uses. As I’ve posted in the past on the subject of coal, that source presently provides 27% of the electrical generation in the US and that is in spite of there being a fairly active campaign to transition away from coal into other...

Two words: Merger Monday!! When the rumor hit the news wires Friday, it sounded true to me. And, it turns out it was. WPX Energy is buying Felix for $2.5b - $900 mm in cash (to be placed in a debt deal) and $1.6b in stock. It’s a great deal for WPX, the market should like it and it’s the way acquisitions should go. More importantly, this should reopen the M&A window for the industry. ...

Yesterday’s post was a tale of two countries, common border but so different. The picture I used set the stage to discuss the stark contrast in the standard of living and the pass through effects. And, It closed by juxtaposing energy consumption in the US. It’s a very complex issue. Today, let’s discuss reframing. On Twitter, an article was posted with just one word in the preface “Myth”. (See below). If you were just flipping through Twitter and...

The next time someone brings up climate change, I am going to bring up the topic of energy poverty. Have a look at the picture and tell yourself what you see. On the left is Haiti. On the right is the Dominican Republic. It’s not intuitively obvious for most E&P people who realize that even though reservoirs end at the lease line, in nature a border is less “stark”. Or is it? A...

It’s the holidays, which means at some point you are likely to rewatch ‘Elf’. Like powering Santa’s sleigh with belief, E&P stocks have had a little recovery of late, in large part due to the belief that OPEC+ may keep it together and defend oil prices above $60/bbl. Time will tell, and a lot will depend on what happens with Iran (on whom sanctions have kept a lot of volume from the market) but in the...