Volatility remains “a thing”. First in oil, over the span of 10 trading days, oil moved from $43/bbl, to $36 and now back to $41. Easy to plan 2021, right?

Not to be outdone, Natural Gas went from uber bullish (the sentiment, not the car company) at $2.60/mcf to $2.00/mcf over the course of 15 trading days. What to make of it?

The read-through to supply and demand is partial and while not complete, sentiment is much easier to track. Watch the EIA data on demand and production. Ultimately, fundamentals will be priced in, even if the market stays irrational for periods of time.

Me? I think that the market is still relying on exports to provide demand and that pricing will need to message “no capital in 2021” to really bring the world back into balance. That means lower short term prices and more short term pain, but you knew that already.

#hottakeoftheday