The more they change, the more it stays the same

I had wondered when the President was going to tweet on oil prices again. It had been a long stretch without calls to increase production and all streaks must come to an end.

But, any way you slice it, oil is north of $60 and if you had been in a coma since October and just woke up, you’d find the market pretty much where you left it in all regards – but with 7 more months of data and first quarter conference calls starting up. And what will we hear?

Horizontal rigs dropped another 13 this week, continuing the theme of slowing drilling pace after July 1st and managing within cash flow. A re-rating of equity prices reflects acquisitions will happen, and soon, and the savvy investor is selling the buyers and buying the sellers… positioning your portfolio for this could lead to significant wins.

But it all comes down to – do more with less, cut costs and deploy those savings into wells, buyback shares and increase dividends. $62 dollar oil gives companies a lifeboat over the base case budgets built for $50. The question is – who stays disciplined and who cucks it up?

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