I have generally self-censored myself from anything that could get me banned again, but, you know me, it was really only a matter of time. Today is that time.  Akin to Ricky Gervais in ‘Humanity’ when he kept saying ‘I should have left it’, I bias more to his character at the Golden Globes ‘It’s my last time. I don’t care, anymore.’ Grab a beer and buckle up, because somebody has some explaining to do.

So, here’s my struggle. Pfizer has said that 25% of it’s 2021 revenue is going to come from their Covid-19 vaccine. Additionally, they have disclosed that they are getting “high 20s margins” on the vaccine. 25% of their revenue with profit in the $4 billion range? In case you are curious, their Q3 profitability was $2.2 billion. So it will increase their profits by 50% PER QUARTER.

Now, you might ask “David, you are a capitalist.  Why are you struggling?”  Well, did you know that Dr. Scott Gottlieb was elected to the Pfizer board in June of 2019?

You may recognize him, as I do, from his frequent appearances on TV.  Now, I don’t want to spin in a “who can you believe?” discussion about motives, timing, wealth creation and narrative he is on the Board of the company that stands to increase quarterly profits $50% ($1,000,000,000).

To digress briefly, I’ve lost a little faith in faces I see come on TV to tell me what I should believe.  Perhaps these examples will come to your mind as well.  The first was when Bill Ackman cashed in on $2 billion of shorts the week after he went on TV and said “hell is coming” and “Hilton is probably worth 0.”  Nice piece of work for 7 days and scaring the hell out of everyone.  I remember the interview very well.  And, probably more pervasive given the current level of interest and use of SPACs, Hindenburg Research published this piece on Clover, a SPAC that the grandfather of SPACs, Chamath Palihapitiya, recently took public in exchange for $25,000 (his firms options are now worth ~$290 mm) and miraculously, the Department of Justice announced that Clover is under investigation for kickbacks and undisclosed marketing deals.

Back to the vaccine, which is actually classed as “an experimental vaccine.”  Did you know that under the PREP act from April 2020, as stemming from the public health emergency, when something is classed as an ‘experimental vaccine’, drug companies are precluded from liability in lawsuits, except for gross negligence.  I find this rich because during the stimulus negotiations of late 2020, the Democratic Party would not agree to the waiver of liability for businesses to reopen over coronavirus concerns.  One state in particular, California, has some crazy burdens of proof for employers to prove that their employees DIDN’T get Covid at work.  I’m truly trying to be an optimist, but really?

To summarize, an experimental vaccine using a new technology (mRNA) with no liability recourse, comes to market with an apparent “90-95%” efficacy (true numbers to be determined later) and the people on TV are telling us “the only way we can get back to normal life” is to take the vaccine.  BUT, we also know, because the vaccine is new, that you could still transmit the disease or catch the disease even if you are vaccinated.  Conversely, the CDC notes that survival rates for those under 50 are 99.97% but the CDC recommended that essential workers be vaccinated before the elderly because “older populations are whiter.”  Does that strike you as odd?  Unequivocally, the risk is highest as you age.  Fun fact for your weekend.  Did you know that the death per million in the United States is 1,408 where the average age is 38.4?  In Nigeria, where the average age is 18.4, it’s 8.