There is always risk making a decision or getting ahead of a story based on limited facts BUT in the mainstream media, no story can be TOO scary. In oil and gas, you get fired for “I thought the well would work out, but I didn’t look at any offset data… oops, duster!” In the press, if you are going to be wrong, make sure you miss in the most terrifying way imaginable. Afterall, there are no refunds for sold advertisements and fear sells. To me, this explains why the Coronavirus is currently the reincarnation of the black plague, sent to earth to bring misery and destruction. It’s path: unknown, unpredictable and the ramifications of which simply CAN NOT be underestimated… lock up your daughter, lock up your wife, lock up your back door…. and run for your life!

There is an early, but alternate, interpretation: in a city of 11 million people, 26 people have died and 830 worldwide are infected. Mortality rates are expected at 3%, and early reports suggest that half of those that died were over 60 and already in hospital with something else. It’s certainly not good, but let’s put that in perspective. In the winter of 2017, the CDC reported that the flu killed 80,000 people in the U.S. That’s 889 people a day! The first Coronavirus was reported at the end of December, so in 24 days, the flu killed ~22,000 Americans. This has killed 26.

Does that mean it’s not scary? No. Does it mean there isn’t currently a vaccine? Sounds like it. But is it going to bring down worldwide GDP and oil demand? So much so that oil prices have fallen almost 10% this week with Libya down almost 1.2 mmbo/d? It seems crazy and I don’t believe it. But I’ve been wrong before.