This week’s series happened to coincide with two previously arranged speaking engagements and so in an odd swing of timing, my message of Gloom hit the road. Perhaps my parents said it best last night: “You are really depressing.”

Look. I want to be wrong. I want prices to go up; I want balance sheets to be better; I want to have a happy message to tell people about the future of the industry. But…

This is a balance sheet crisis and means that a meeting of the minds MUST occur between the debt and equity. The industry just isn’t correctly capitalized (with equity). 

As for employees- regardless of the capital structure- they are needed to do the actual work. Now. If the asset is bad…I can’t help you. But revamping the capital structure to allow good assets with good employees to be freed from the chains of the historical debt is good: a reset on valuation, for opportunities, and to emerge from the other side of the crisis in a better career position.

In ‘08 the world economy almost collapsed.  Lots of financial restructuring followed and today- 11 years later, it’s a distant memory. Banks are lending and companies are spending.

But for share and debt holders hoping only price will save them in 2020- I just don’t see it.

#hottakeoftheday