Way back when I was in University, I used to play semi-pro squash.  Pro, because I was paid.  Semi, because it barely covered the travel.  But it was the 90s so everything was better, obviously. Before hotels asked for ID to get room keys; before the internet was as full of content as it is now so you had to lock your TV down so your friends wouldn’t charge 24 hour packages; when you could still put people’s mattresses on balconies; and when you lean full garbage cans of water against doors before knocking and running…. those were the days, weren’t they?

Well, even in ‘the best of times’, there is ‘one of those guys’.  In this case, one of my squash friends (and I use that term VERY loosely), used to go to the front desk in the morning, get your room key, sneak in your room in the morning and perform his morning ritual in your bathroom. Creative?  Yes.  Pleasant?   Not so much.  Needless to say when you awoke… You are with me now…. it was horrible.

As we look at the oil and gas share prices in the last two days, there are two ways to look at it. First, you could be the person sleeping happily in your hotel room.  Or second, you could know that I have your room key.  You HOPE I don’t, but you know better.

It’s been a long time since I’ve used SMOG… because…. I mean… come on… you remember the last 3 months?   But it’s still a thing. At $55/bbl flat and $2.57/mcf gas, 95% of U.S. E&Ps were overvalued.  Many were trading at 3x Debt : EBITDA.  And OPEC+ was talking about deals that lasted more than a month.   So I love that equity prices are rallying.  I don’t understand why Tesla is worth what it is.   Or Netflix.  Or Amazon.  Or United Airlines.  And certainly not Boeing.  But I know they don’t drill wells.  And have public data that shows well performance.   And has a finite inventory.  And uses an independent reserve auditor using a flat price deck and a 5 year business plan to publish projections that aren’t net of G&A or interest.  And oil is $40, and gas is $1.81.

So what did the Wolf say?  We ain’t there yet, in slightly more colorful language.