25% of Europe’s fertilizer comes from Russia. Fertilizer is produced from natural gas and in Europe, prices are $26/mmbtu. Fertilizer is made to make food for a planet of 7.8 billion humans, up slightly from the 2 billion people that lived on the earth in 1900, before we harnessed the power of fossil fuels.

Power prices in Europe are over €283/MWh, up 10x from 2020. Humans use power to manufacture goods that Europeans want, and occasionally need. Things like new cars, new planes, new farm equipment, new TVs and new wind turbines. But most consumption is excessive. It is, after all, the foundation of Apple’s business model. Did you REALLY need the iPhone 13?

12% of the world’s wheat comes from Ukraine. 17% of the world’s corn does, too. As does 30% of sunflower seeds. Add Russia’s wheat, corn and sunflower exports and those percentages get much higher. Dovetail that with the fact that 40% of the US’s corn production goes to ethanol production, fertilizer isn’t being produced in Europe and Ukrainian’s are shooting at people, not harvesting their fields, and the result is that the world has a major food crisis coming this summer.

7% of the world’s imported oil comes from Russia. 7% more comes from Saudi. With climate change rhetoric, the west has helpfully told the oil producing nations of the world “we don’t need your oil, demand has peaked.” Somehow, the new normal looks a lot like the old normal.

The world consumes 100 mmbbl/d of oil. US consumption is up 10% from 2019 to 22 mmbo/d right now. The U.S. produces 11.6 mmbo/d right now, 1.2 mmbo/d below the all time high. Neither the administrations in Canada or the U.S. want to support the Keystone pipeline which would have moved 880,000 bbl/d between the two countries. Biden canceled the permit January 22, 2021 as one of his first acts as President. The U.S imports 500,000 bbls a day of Russian crude.

So forgive me when I raise my eyebrows at statements from the likes of Jen Psaki:

“We need to reduce our dependence on foreign oil, on oil in general, and we need to look at other ways of having energy in our country and others.

“I’ll take other things produced in Unfriendly Nations for $100 billion, Jen.”

16% of the world’s lithium is produced in China. China also controls 90% of neodymium used for magnets in EVs. 70% of the world’s cobalt comes from the Congo. Indonesia produces 30% of the world’s nickel. 93% of the United States arsenic imports are from China. Steel is made from coal and uses lots and lots of power. Once built, a wind turbine needs magnets to generate electricity. To transmit electricity, you need aluminum, more than half of which is made in … China… using power… which is more expensive due to ….

I have a hint for Governments of the world: only reducing consumption will save us from ourselves this summer and for the many summers to come. Sadly, THAT topic has no profit in it. When it comes to reducing your consumption of everything by 25%, no one wants to actually do it, least of all the companies that sell you your 25% excessive consumption.

The war in Ukraine and the energy and food crisis that are upon us are all humbling reminders of the cost to be human. To be free and warm and fed isn’t cheap, clean or easy, and our policies need to be as grounded as our reality.

Hang on to your hats. 2022 is about to get really ugly.