Last year, I posted my “what to expect when you are expecting: 2020” predictions. I wish I had said “mayhem, chaos and the breakdown of society as we know it.” That would have been more correct. The year itself, therefore, underscores the point NNT says in his book “Black Swans”. Black Swans have three attributes: unpredictability, consequences, and retrospective explainability. Check.

What did I predict, you may ask? Due to space limitations, it’s in the link above, but on reflection, many were right, for a time, and for the right reason. US oil DID decline from Nov ‘19- Mar ‘20. Gas prices WERE horrible. Cash flow was king and the election was huge for the future.

My views on CV are well known so I won’t repeat them here but, I think it’s fair to say that the true Black Swan of 2020 was the response to it; not the virus itself. Policy picked winners, created losers, and the consequences have changed life and lives. My learning of 2020, you can be right on the data and wrong on the emotional response and feelings trump logic in a society split 50/50 between Republicans (individualism) and Democrats (collective good). No one is ‘right’ and no one is ‘wrong’ but the strain between the two sides will dominate migration, politics, employment, education and friendships in 2021+.

As always, recognizing a problem without a solution is quite useless and so we face a choice. We let the opposing poles struggle, and we continue to divide, or we reject extremism.. ON BOTH sides, and move to the middle. But a move to the middle involves trade offs and the sign of a compromise is that NO ONE is happy, but both sides can live with it. That is my hope (not plan… I’m buying a bunker, guns and 3 years of food… kidding…. sort of).