I give the Prime Minister of New Zealand top marks for her performance in the last week after the horrific events in Christchurch.  Banning assault rifles and expanded clip magazines seems a logical step after 50 people were killed with one.   I’m not going to get into a big gun control argument here because it won’t change anyone’s mind.  But why I give the Prime Minister credit is because she took decisive steps to address a problem.  It may not be the right solution, but action...

US Crude oil imports are about 11% below the 4 week average which led to at least half of the 9.6 mmbo drop in US Storage this week.  While I have been known for my bearish views in the short term on crude prices based on the supply fundamentals, this change in US import (and export) dynamics has made me pause. Of course, the macro questions remain:  how long does OPEC+ keep production cut (it appears.... they are for real having cancelled the April meeting); Does...

When you watch a duck floating peacefully on the surface of the pond, you can't see that it's paddling like hell beneath the surface. Evaluating well performance in oil and gas over the past 3 years, the improvements year over year have been limited to say the least- in virtually every basin.  In some cases, 2018 is worse than 2017.  In many, 2016, 2017 and 2018 are basically the same. This in spite of pushing fluid intensity and proppant intensity.  The last bastion of improvement is in...

Just when I thought a fountain shooting water into the air every hour was the stupidest thing I’ve ever seen, I discovered that it can be topped.   I really need to get over this...  #hottakeoftheday

The market took notice this week when both Chevron and Exxon called out the Permian basin as their driver of growth and profitability.     That each expect to produce ~1 mmbo/d from the basin by 2024 (it produces 4 mmbo/d total right now) is not a surprise.   The concept that investors should take note of was this:  “The big thing that I think has changed is the shale game has become a scale game, and so people that can do things at large scale...

SB-181 is a hard piece of legislation to write about.  Of course - the knee jerk reaction is “I don’t understand it, haven’t read it cover to cover, but it must be bad!”  The rhetoric around it certainly is.   Without a doubt, it adds uncertainty to incremental investment in Colorado.  For certain, it is a partisan ram job that is meant to win a PR victory for leftist politicians.  But what the bill actually does will depend on how “local control” actually plays out.  It will add...

Every closed restaurant or business you drive by was started by someone who said "Man, I want to run a business!"   Usually, they had little experience in it, didn't do any market research, spent money on the wrong things and eventually, discovered it wasn't a profitable venture. Don't be a "wantrepreneur."  Stick to your knitting, stay with your strengths and try for singles.  Success is as much timing and luck as it is skill, so the ability to survive for a long enough period of time to...

“Entrance-gate” is a good time for parents to think about how we raise our children and ensure they aren’t entitled. A thought: Entitlement can’t flourish in people that have gratitude, goals and grit.   #hottakeoftheday

Apparently, the folks arrested yesterday in “Entrance-Gate” don’t follow me on LinkedIn.  I could have saved them so much time (and it turns out, jail time) if they had read my previous post on College Tuition. I get that everyone wants the best for their kids.  However, faking athletic prowess and bribing people to get into a “top” school so their kids can take a liberal arts degree and end up never paying their degree back and being disgruntled employees who discover the word “merit” too late...

Energy equities over the last 30 days have shown an interesting divergence in companies with market caps over $2 billion.   The top 3 performing: Two just completed mergers and one has an activist investor making noise.  They are all up more than 10%.   The bottom 4: All only reduced capital by an average of 15% from 2018 and pay no dividend. They are down by more than 14%.   Some days (most?!), I feel like I’m in the Matrix.  Where is Morpheus with the red pill...