When you don't get enough on technical Tuesday, you are still.... yep, I did it. Thirsty on Thursday!! Year end reporting season ticks on, a new company comes out almost every day with data that makes the point and so, to quench the thirst for knowledge, Thirsty Thursday is born and first up, CNX Resources. And what would a post be without starting with the SMOG, which is where this entire post is going to live. Below is graph...

In a special Technical Tuesday, we start with something I don't say very often: "brought to you by popular demand." I take on most issues: global warming; coronavirus over-zealousness; ESG lip-service; and how often I get fired. I write management teams open letters suggesting (nicely) how they could do their jobs better, suggest mergers and generally walk into every controversial subject I can find. But I really didn't want to take on Chesapeake. There is a...

When you are on a roll, I say just go with it, even if it guarantees not getting on management's Christmas card list. So today, we are staying with Oasis Petroleum for Technical Tuesday. Not that I want to trigger an analogy but if I did, I would tell you that I think of Oasis as "the Ultra Petroleum of oil". It's an old story: Darling company finds itself in a wonderful play, gets...

It's Technical Tuesday and you had to know it was coming. In the past 8 weeks, I have taken a lot of beatings on your behalf on Twitter for my equity ownership in you because, rightly or wrongly, I made you the poster child for my SMOG investment thesis. It is also relevant to this discussion that I own more shares personally than any of your non executive directors, so you know I care. Like really,...

Dear Callon, Please, don't stop reading. I know our relationship didn't get off on the right foot and even though it's entirely your fault, I'm going to do the right thing and take the blame, because that's what you do when you are trying to make amends. Also, congratulations on your purchase of Carrizo, I didn't think you would get that done. I stand corrected. I do this thing called "Technical Tuesday" and... You know what, it doesn't matter...

Following the Parsley/Jagged discussion on Technical Tuesday, it's time for a very special Technical Thursday to talk about the other marriage that closed this week- PDC and SRC. Have I mentioned I love mergers? (PS, so does EVERY ENERGY INVESTOR!!) Let's start with some disclosures. I own PDC shares. I don't give investment advice and I think by now everyone is aware that I write what I think. So today, I will openly pontificate on the PDC/SRC...

In the #hottakeoftheday yesterday, we did a deeper dive into SMOG- and who didn't love that? So good, right? Today, with the help of ShaleProfile Analytics we look at what the combination of Jagged Peak and Parsley looks like (and on a special edition Technical Thursday, we will look at SRC/PDC as they are scheduled to close their transaction today) Some observations from the graphic: Obvious overlap of acreage in the Delaware basin- should mean that the G&A...

When I say: "Regulatory risk"; "Blue state and the destination of emigrants"; "Environment activists"; "Great place to visit, horrible place to drill" what comes to mind? California? Possibly, but no, I'm talking about that other place. My home state. Colorado. From Proposition 112 that failed in 2018 and was rebooted (effectively) as Senate Bill 181 in 2019, setbacks, emissions, local control, and urban drilling have all made "Colorado" a scary word in oil and gas investing....

It's time for the last Technical Tuesday of the year, and where else to finish but the same spot we started: looking at DUCs in the key oil basins (drawing from ShaleProfile Analytics and EIA data). First, let's start with the definition of a DUC. It is drilled, uncompleted well. Lots of people question the EIA data but don't provide a better number. Importantly- it's a consistent methodology and that tabulates 3 things: 1) # wells were drilled in a basin 2) # wells completed 3)...

Today’s post has been a long time coming. It’s time to debunk the long held myth that IPs matter to economics. First. Let’s get out of the way “it’s because of oil backwardization”. I agree. Price matters THE most in our business. But when oil is $52 and the forward strip was $55, you know we aren’t choking wells. So, let’s assume that as in practice, decisions are made in a flat price deck world. Now let’s talk ROR. That # is the...