Out today is our episode with Alex Epstein, the author of “The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels.” If you don’t follow Alex or haven’t read his book, it’s absolutely worth the read. From the discussion, I totally agree with Alex that the oil, gas and coal industry hasn’t done a good job (or a job at all!) of advocating that not only aren’t fossil fuels bad, but that they are superior to wind and solar because they can exist as...

The reason I have a short thesis for oil and gas public company stock is because, at the core, $40/bbl, while materially better than $30/bbl, isn’t $50/bbl.  It is also because the front end of the natural gas curve is $1.80/mcf and the long end is $2.50/mcf ....which never actually arrives. So ask yourself: if it were 100% your money, would you drill right now? What price would it take to drill? Would you hedge? If you hedge today, what...

More and more often, I am hearing the narrative that OPEC’s cuts of 9.7 mmbo/d in July, falling to 7.7 mmbo/d in August and then 5.8 mmbo/d for 18 months is evidence that oil prices can rally and we can go back to a pre-Covid world? Ummmm.... yeah, ok. Remember in March when Russia said “it’s every country for themselves?” Remember in March when Saudi said “Oh, I’ll show you raising production!” Remember in February when Covid demand hit China...

Yesterday, a U.S district judge did what I would have thought to be unthinkable before 2020. I’m finding myself having that thought a lot. The judge ruled that the Army Corp of Engineers didn’t do a thorough environmental impact study and so ordered the shut down of the DAPL (Dakota Access Pipeline) that moves 570,000 bbls/d out of the Bakken and into Illinois. That it’s been moving oil since June of 2017, that the capital had been spent and...

One of the few people I read routinely on Twitter is Art Berman.  He is a geologist, commentator and analyst who has been around the industry for over 40 years.  With a history degree, he sees historical patterns, and as a scientist he digs at the data as few others do.  It’s rare to find someone as data driven as me but Art might be the smarter, better looking version.  Regardless, I enjoyed the conversation and hope you do...

On July 2, DRW was Live with #VdoorLocksmith reviewing "Financials for non-financial people".  Check it out here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKRGXfJR9wA  

Source: Coronavirus: Why everyone was wrong | by Back to Reason | Medium By Beda M Stadler July 1, 2020 The original article was published in the Swiss magazine Weltwoche (World Week) on June 10th. The author, Beda M Stadler is the former director of the Institute for Immunology at the University of Bern, a biologist and professor emeritus. Stadler is an important medical professional in Switzerland, he also likes to use provoking language, which should not deter you from the extremely...

This morning, Rosehill gave “investors” a good look at what happens in bankruptcy, in case you missed CHK, and is a great reminder that cases like Whiting were the exception and not the rule. What happened? “The RSA provides that, following consummation of the Plan, the Company's equity will be owned solely by the Consenting Creditors and holders of the Company's preferred stock.” For clarity they added this sentence. “Additionally, the RSA provides that, pursuant to the Plan, the Company's...