My 13 and 15 year old, not knowing what "negative prices" meant or how that was even a thing, wrestled out of me the following explanation.  "Let's pretend we have a 1,000 bbl swimming pool.  Someone is willing to pay us $37,630 for us to drain the pool and fill it with oil to store it until we can resell it at whatever price we can and we get to keep the money for that, too.  Oil will be...

Episode 39 was once again Live streamed on our YouTube channel is available in video and audio formats, below.  Thanks to all who participated and joined in the discussion.   Podcast  

For 18 months, there have been a lot of people lining up to serve me crow and hear me utter three words:  "I was wrong."  I admit it.  I was wrong.  Oil did not trade at $0/bbl.... it closed at -$37.63/bbl.  I'm sorry.  Now, to the topic everyone is tuning in for: the reality of supply-demand in the pork industry. It's a little known fact that 70% of the bacon consumed in the U.S. is consumed in restaurants and food...

With 22,000,000 incremental Americans now unemployed, patience and bank accounts are running low.  Protests across the country drew support and criticism and sadly, devolved into generally political lines.  Facts gave way to emotions, and no matter the path forward, there will be much losing.  If we reopen the economy fully, people will get sick.  And if we stay shut, people will economically die.  Aside from politics, why are the views on the lock down so varied and emotional?  My...

We welcome back our first repeat guest after the last episode probably woke a lot of people up to COVID and the state of the world, I think this one will too. In the balance between health and economy, and what comes next, we cover all the topics.  I love chatting with Mark because I always learn and as an analyst and observer, he speaks his mind and backs it with data.  Something you can imagine I deeply respect and...

Let me start by saying how much I appreciate the messages, comments, notes, texts and phones calls that I receive.  So many thoughtful comments, opinions, and ideas and it really means a lot to me that you share them. You don't always have to agree with me, but I appreciate the time you give every day.  We are social beings, and social distancing and sheltering doesn't mean we shouldn't collaborate and put forth solutions, and better solutions. Second, if I...

Source: medium.com, by Dustin McKissen   I am not a healthcare worker or epidemiologist, nor will I pretend to be. I am also not a “far-right activist,” as anyone daring to question the wisdom and impact of the shutdowns seems to get labeled. In fact, for the record, I did not vote for Donald Trump in 2016. I am also not a member of the far-right media. For years I have written for major media outlets like CNN and CNBC, often using those...

Today we talk with Enverus Founder and Board Member Allen Gilmer over a huge range of topics, from building a tech company in the oil and gas space to process improvement to the future of life in oil and gas and working from home, power consumption and life in a COVID-19 world. If you don’t know Allen from launching DrillingInfo and growing it into what is now the Enverus behemoth, I think you’ll find you enjoy the conversation as much...

Forecasting is hard.... and the assumptions are really important.  As many who don't forecast for a living have learned, forecasts generate a range of outcomes (in statistical terms, a P10, P50 and P90 outcome).  We have also seen that models can be wrong, typically because the inputs are wrong.  More importantly, we have seen that models can be used improperly, as has been the case by media outlets and health professionals.  Like climate change, like stock valuation, or like...

I remember this one time, at my old office desk, when I wrote a post that started 'Dear Concho, Pioneer, EOG, Please shut down your F'ing rigs, you are absolutely killing the industry by growing production.'  And then I went on to explain supply and demand and why more US oil wasn’t needed.  It was November 2018. That post had about 300 views in a week and it made a lot of people angry.  They said "DRW, you sold your...