I am seriously considering starting an event driven hedge fund that invests in oil and gas companies. Here would be the rules. If - in investor and quarterly meetings - a company talked about its net asset value under a variety of scenarios; lived within cash flow; paid a great dividend and was actively paying down debt- I would buy it. If - however - a company used the words “weather related delays”; “non recurring (but recurring) operating cost increases”; “we will be cash flow positive...

And with the stroke of midnight, our country is MUCH STRONGER with tariffs of 25% instead of 10% hitting $200 billion of imported Chinese goods. That’s the news. Our economy is better. Have a nice day... Actually, I’d like to ask a question if I could: if I can buy an imported Chinese apple (tasty!!) for $1 and there are 25% tariffs on them, doesn’t the exporter still get $1 because they have raised the price to $1.25? Aren’t I actually paying the tariff through...

And now, we return to our regularly scheduled and topical hottakes. And what a week it’s been!! We have to go all the way back to Monday when Amplify and Midstates agreed to a merger of equals (that’s not a real thing by the way, but sounds good in a press release). Many, many more to come so a good start. Pioneer annnouced quarterly results with the strangest asset sale I’ve ever seen. A $450 mm divestiture for which they receive $25 mm today and...

Another week, another shooting at a school but don’t worry, I am not advocating for any sentence that includes the word “gun” or “control”. I learned my lesson on alluding to that debate last time - and I like to think I’m a fast learner. No thank you!! For clarity in the sentence above, I am simply stating facts. There was a shooting at a school in North Carolina last week and there was a shooting at a school in Denver this week. Definitely...

Thank you for your interest in Anadarko. I know right now you are thinking about raising your bid but I don’t think you should and here’s why (in case the people working for you don’t write in bullet form memos... on LinkedIn) 1. You get a billion break fee! Not bad for writing an offer. You planned to increase the buyback from $4b to $5b after the acquisition anyway- now it’s free money and you can still do. 2. You were going to sell $15-$20b...

It’s official: I have a new crush and it’s Vicki Hollub. She is one tough, creative and feisty cookie and I like it a lot! In the span of 2 weeks, Oxy has gone from unrequited admirer trying to get Anadarko’s attention to superhero calling all the shots. I thought the Buffet play was creative - a touch expensive but hey, the things we do for love. But now.... pre selling an asset they don’t even own in the largest risk area of the deal’s...

Source: Forbes Over the last decade, journalists have held up Germany’s renewables energy transition, the Energiewende, as an environmental model for the world.  “Many poor countries, once intent on building coal-fired power plants to bring electricity to their people, are discussing whether they might leapfrog the fossil age and build clean grids from the outset,” thanks to the Energiewende, wrote a New York Times reporter in 2014. Click here to continue to Forbes “The Energiewende — the biggest political project since reunification — threatens to fail,” reports... DER...

Do you know what I’m thankful for? Everything. I was at a luncheon fundraiser for ACE in Denver this week, and I am grateful for the reminder. Each year, ACE gives $6 mm and 2000 scholarships to allow low income kids to go to private local schools and change their opportunity set in life. Education- and the access to a safe, Learning focused environment- changes lives. From life time earnings expectations, delaying child rearing and creating new role models for the community to look up...

Business school professors might tell you that in an acquisition, you should take the best of both companies and make the Newco “better”. That’s why I wrote the book - “...What They Didn’t Teach You In Business School”. Most people teaching have never been through an acquisition personally and just interviewed some CEO 10 years after the fact for a paper they wrote and think they understand corporate culture. They do not. The people that work at Oxy and CVX do so because they like...

After the school dance this week, I had to tell my son “If they gossip to you, they gossip about you.” Just a good reminder for all the grownups.